Russia's Triumph: The West's Unravelling

We have stepped into 2025, leaving 2024 behind. Embracing this new reality, we find ourselves adapting to it in many meaningful ways. There is no bone-chilling winter in London yet. However, the weather office has predicted that there will be snow next week. The temperature will be below freezing almost at night. When nature is in such a state, the Western market economy has been hit by the scorching fire of the Sahara. The market is hot. And the people of the West are uncomfortable in that heat. Ordinary people feel it in their bones. However, Western politicians, liberal economists, warlords, military experts, and the branded Western media are constantly beating drums and telling lies as if nothing has happened yet. Everything happening is to protect democracy and put Ukraine in a position of victory. Lies are being spread against Russia. While living in the story of turning day into night and truth into lies, the day when the great danger will sound, that day there will be no way to survive, has not yet entered the minds of the West. This year is coming to an end. December 31st will mark 1042 days since Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. The crisis began on February 23rd, 2022. We all know how much has happened since the crisis began. But what no one knew, understood, or wanted to understand was that this crisis would lead to the West's collapse, Ukraine would fall, and Russia would be crowned with victory. Putin would become a powerful, intelligent, and strategic world leader.

Since the beginning of the crisis, there has been an unprecedented amount of attention worldwide, primarily due to the extensive participation of the European Union (EU) and the United States. Their allies have joined them. That is, some other NATO countries. The EU, the United States, and NATO countries sided with Ukraine in the crisis and forced Ukraine to go to war against Russia. More than 50 Western countries declared war on Russia. Military aid and billions of dollars are pouring into Ukraine. The goal is the same - Russia must be defeated by any means. Russia's defeat means the West's sole hegemony and global leapfrog. Western countries are in a bind. If necessary, everyone in Ukraine must jump into the war, even if they have to die. Russia must be suppressed, Putin must be destroyed, and if this causes the people of the West to start breathing, there is no problem. So the West girded its loins. Over the past few years, these Western countries have invested vast sums of money, imposed harsh sanctions, and provided massive military assistance to Ukraine. Ukraine has become a beggar for the West, and Ukrainian President Zelensky has become the world's most remarkable beggar. Request after request, and the West has poured everything in. These efforts mainly aimed to weaken Russia economically and militarily and force it to retreat. However, the reality is painting a different picture—where Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin, have become more assertive and, in many ways, more powerful than before. This is what is called a blessing in disguise.

The United States is the leader of the warmongers. Since the start of the war, the United States has pledged about $183 billion for Ukraine, of which more than $130 billion has been allocated and $86.7 billion has already been disbursed.This money includes direct military aid, budgetary support, and humanitarian assistance. At the same time, the European Union has pledged more than $65 billion in financial and emergency assistance and an additional $50 billion in military aid, including advanced weapons, ammunition, and logistical support. The United Kingdom has pledged £12.8 billion for Ukraine. Of that, £7.8 billion is in military aid and £5 billion in non-military aid. By March 2024, most Western governments had pledged $380 billion worth of assistance since the invasion of Ukraine, of which about $118 billion was direct military aid from individual countries. Together, Western governments have invested hundreds of billions of dollars to support Ukraine's defence efforts and contain Russia. In addition to these financial pledges, these countries have imposed tough sanctions on key sectors of the Russian economy—particularly energy, finance, and technology. More than twenty thousand sanctions have been imposed so far.

The Western nations pledged to undermine the Russian economy, dismantle Russia, and oust Putin from office. This is not a novel political ideology of the West but originated with the Soviet revolution. They successfully dismantled the Soviet Union. Following the USSR's dissolution, the West largely supported the new Russia until Putin assumed office. Putin aimed to benefit the nation by aspiring to unite countries, foster progress and prosperity, and oppose all forms of Western social, political, economic, and military hegemony. The issue commenced at that time. They aimed to obliterate Putin's ambitions and aspirations. However, the West underestimates Putin and Russia's power. The God of the Future was secretly smiling at the West's boasting. Since the war broke out, everything is upside down. The situation quickly moved to a different direction. Russia and Putin are triumphant. The economy is booming, and notable military operations are being carried out enthusiastically. Russian forces are capturing one area after another. The Russian army is advancing at a breakneck speed, breaking through the enemy's solid walls with heroic pride. The West's long-standing plan to hinder the financing of Russia's war effort and isolate it on the global stage is failing. However, despite this unprecedented move, Russia has adapted by exploiting alternative trade routes and strengthening partnerships with non-Western countries like China, India and Turkey. What else can be called a great victory for Russia and a disaster for the West?

Since the onset of the war, the Russian economy has performed very well despite numerous economic restrictions, exhibiting notable stability and robust GDP growth over the past few years. Notwithstanding the speculation from Western pundits and politicians, the Russian economy experienced an increase of 3.6% in 2023 and 4% in 2024, surpassing the performance of numerous developed and emerging nations. On the other hand, the GDP of Western countries has hit rock bottom. This economic stability has been underpinned by revenues from energy exports, especially oil and gas. In addition, although facing volatility, the Russian ruble is expected to stabilise around 100 rubbles per US dollar by early 2025. Such performance is contrary to the expectations of Western policymakers, who predicted a severe and profound economic decline in Russia. The sanctions have imposed some costs, including higher inflation challenges in sourcing certain technologies and components. However, Russia has successfully mitigated these effects through strategic import substitution and expansion of domestic production capacity. For example, Russian billionaires have redirected their wealth into key industries, which has ensured that important military and economic activities can continue despite the sanctions. This adaptation has not only sustained Russia's economy but also increased its self-reliance, which has inadvertently created a kind of economic irresponsibility.

Putin has become stronger and has emerged as a staunch despite facing multiple challenges during this crisis. West could not weaken Vladimir Putin and Russia's economy; instead, the sanctions have fuelled nationalist sentiment, and Putin's actions in Ukraine have generally been seen as appropriate, with the Russian public typically endorsing him. This became an excellent opportunity for the president, who capitalised on popular support and enabled his administration to pursue its geopolitical goals with renewed vigour. On the other hand, the protracted conflict in Ukraine has created divisions within the Western alliance. The total costs of supporting the war machine to punish Russia continue to mount, leading to a fragile social, political, and economic situation. The Europeans witnessed a negative trend in the EU political, social and economic landscape.

The sanctions against Russia have brought domestic discontent in some European countries, which is blamed on the increase in energy prices and inflation. As a result, public support for the government policy of Ukraine has decreased in those countries. The conflict has not been able to achieve a strategic strike against Russia despite colossal investment and efforts by the West. Against this tempest, the Kremlin has grown more flexible and resilient. Of course, the sanction regime indeed works, yet it has not crippled Russia as many would have thought. Instead, it has forced the country to strengthen its economic foundation and feel its way out. The view that the Western powers are weakening Russia is increasingly seen as an idea slipping further and further away from reality. In this complex geopolitical landscape, the West should consider its overall strategy vis-à-vis Russia. Economic and military coercion has limits when the adversary is strong and resourceful, a truism well illustrated by the lack of tangible results after billions spent and sanctions imposed. Yet again, the so-called struggle between the West and Russia has not been entirely played out, and Putin has proved himself to be vital in that struggle.

However, Donald Trump's political comeback could add a new dimension. His approach to international strategy and conflict differed with his "America First" policy during his last administration. Trump has already questioned US aid to Ukraine and claimed that the conflict would not have escalated to this point if his administration had been in power. Trump's approach to a solution will largely depend on his strategic goals, which have historically focused on reducing the use of economic and military resources. He has signalled a desire to settle through direct negotiations with Russia. Trump could take a position where he argues that a workable solution can be achieved through diplomatic negotiations rather than sanctions and substantial financial outlays. In addition, he could prioritise reducing the strain on the American economy caused by the massive military and economic aid provided to Ukraine. He could argue that the money could be invested in domestic infrastructure, healthcare, and job creation, consistent with his "America First" policy. However, implementing Trump's policy will require diplomatic skills on the international stage and a balanced approach to ensuring an honourable solution for Ukraine. Achieving long-term stability between Russia and the West will not be easy, as it is not just a question of ending the war but also of reducing long-term geopolitical tensions. At the same time, Trump's critics are concerned that his approach could increase Russian influence, and this could negatively affect Ukraine's sovereignty and the unity of the Western alliance. Therefore, once he comes to power, it remains to be seen how he will resolve this complex situation. Under his leadership, the American role is likely less assertive but more conciliatory, which could create a new balance between Russia and the West.

It is clear that the efforts of Western countries in the Ukraine crisis have failed to meet their expectations. Despite substantial financial investments, harsh sanctions, and military assistance, Russia and Vladimir Putin have emerged as the real winners of this conflict. Russia has become more economically powerful and self-reliant, and its influence in the geopolitical sphere has also increased. Russia has strengthened its strategic relations with China, India, and other BRICS members by reducing its dependence on the West. The group is now emerging as a powerful economic and political bloc, ready to challenge the Western-led world order. Russia's resistance to sanctions and the successful use of alternative trade routes prove that this new alliance has the potential to be more effective and self-reliant than the West. The geopolitical balance will likely tip in favour of Russia and its allies very soon. The rise of BRICS and expanding its global economic role will further weaken Western dominance. The dollar's ​​influence in the international monetary system may decline, and a trend towards alternative financial systems may emerge, which is positive for Russia and its allies.